What do Donald Trump, big-time gambling, and early odds for the 2020 election have in common?

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A lot was riding on this past US presidential election. It wasn’t just the fate of the nation being decided; whether we’ll be led the next four years by Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in the White House. It wasn’t just policy, law, the economy, peace, or liberal vs. conservative doctrines teetering in the balance. In fact, there was a lot more riding on who came out a winner as POTUS in the early morning hours of Tuesday: money.

That’s because tens of millions of dollars (and a lot of UK Pounds) would change hands as our biggest political election became a matter of wager and sport, no different than the betting that takes place every Sunday on NFL football games or on mega fights in Vegas.

The epicenter of this international gambling-on-politics trend seems to be an unlikely source: Paddy Power, an Irish bookmaker that coordinates legal wagering –online but also still on the phone – for gambling across the UK. It was Paddy Power, among others, that handicapped the U.S. presidential election, offering odds and big payouts on Clinton and Trump.

But it back fired – big time – for the Irish bookmaker when Trump turned all the polls upside down and shocked the world with his victory. In fact, Paddy Power had early betting lines at only 150/1 for Trump – a virtual long shot.

Other UK bookmakers who do the same thing like Sun Bets had the chances for Hillary Clinton winning at 83 percent. Convergex had Trump’s odds of winning at a similar 28.5%.

But as the election progressed and the FBI renewed its probe of Clinton’s emails, Trump’s chances of winning grew. Heading into the weeks before the election, his odds grew to 5/1 then 5/2, just as Clinton’s dropped from 2/9 to 1/3.

There was heavy betting on both candidates, as UK bookies took in about £20 million (about $25 million USD) in total wagers. But when the FBI announced that Clinton was in the clear again, Paddy Power maintained their odds overwhelmingly for her to win the Presidency. In fact, they had the chance of Trump winning the election were roughly the same as flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row.

Interestingly enough, there was a huge influx of money coming in for Trump to win in the last few days of the election, with 91% of wagers placed on the real estate mogul to win.

But Paddy Power was still so confident in a Clinton victory that they actually started paying out winnings to those that bet on the Secretary of State and former First Lady, doling out £800,000 early to customers.

Big mistake.

Historically big.

When Trump shocked the world on November 8, Paddy Power and the other betting sites were left with a stiff bill, facing the biggest political payout in its 28-year history.

One man named William Hill won £4 million on the outcome of the election, which was a record for political betting. Another Trump “super fan” named John Mappin won £103,000 on Trump after putting down 33 individual bets over 18 months.

Paddy Power, already on the hook for £800,000 in early payouts to Clinton non-winners, would be facing imminent bankruptcy from the double losses if not for one thing: their historic blunder(s) have gotten them so much worldwide publicity that attention to their wagering site has skyrocketed, and they’re in the black once again.

Paddy Power’s odds makers got the Trump win incredibly wrong on the heels of another titanic upset: Brexit. In fact, they’d given the UK a 90 percent chance of remaining in the European Union, which obviously didn’t happen.

If someone had bet on a Donald Trump victory, Britain leaving the EU and soccer team Leicester City winning the Premier League they’d have won a massive $50 million USD payout on a measly $5 bet, as they had the chance for all three events to happen at only about 0.000033 percent.

Did you cash in by betting on Trump, or lose money on Clinton? Don’t worry – you’ll have plenty more chances to wager on political happenings within the Trump presidency and in future U.S. elections.

Here are some odds Paddy Power and Sun Bet have posted:

President Trump “Specials”:

Odds               Event

1/3                   To see his term out

9/4                   Not to see his term out

3/1                   To get divorced during his term

5/1                   To win the 2020 presidential election

10/1                 To be impeached

12/1                 To be jailed for a sex offense

6/1                  Hillary Clinton to be jailed before the end of 2020

4/1                  To build a complete wall between Mexico and USA

40/1               The first commercial flight to Mars to take place during Trump’s presidency

66/1               Trump to paint the White House gold

100/1            To be banned from visiting the UK during his term

 

Where will President Trump’s first state visit be?

13/8 Russia

7/4   Mexico

11/4 Canada

6/1   Scotland

6/1   Israel

10/1 China

16/1 Solvenia

25/1 Ireland

25/1 Cuba

40/1 Venezuela

100/1 North Korea

 

US Presidential Election 2020 odds:

11/10 Donald Trump

7/1       Mike Pence

7/1       Paul Ryan

7/1       Tim Kaine

8/1       Michelle Obama

9/1       Elizabeth Warren

12/1   Hillary Clinton

13/1   Julian Castro

16/1   Cory Booker

16/1   Amy Klobuchar

20/1   Bernie Sanders

20/1   Kamala Harris

25/1   Trey Gowdy

33/1   Ted Cruz

40/1   Jeb Bush

66/1   NFL quarterback Tom Brady

66/1   Mark Cuban

90/1   Kanye West

100/1 Chelsea Clinton

150/1 Kevin Spacey

275/1 Kim Kardashian

 

 

 

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